Calculation of catastrophic floods characteristics of ungauged Tsemes River (Novorossiysk, the Black sea coast of Russia) on the basis of hydrological model "hydrograph"

Research output

Abstract

The article considers the examples of calculation of catastrophic floods characteristics at ungauged rivers of the Black sea coast of Russia. Mathematical modeling of hydrological processes is proposed as an alternative to the standard methods of assessment of engineering characteristics based on a probabilistic approach in the climate change conditions. The deterministic hydrological model Hydrograph was applied to estimate the maximum water discharges of the ungauged Tsemes river (Novorossiysk). The set of model parameters was developed and verified at studied catchments. Continuous simulations of streamflow were conducted at the Tsemes River with a daily resolution for the period 1977-2013. Using detailed pluviograms data of storm precipitation at Novorossiysk and nearby meteorological stations, 1-hour maximum water discharge of three catastrophic floods on Tsemes river was calculated for flood events in 1988, 2002 and 2012 and compared with the characteristics of maximum discharges obtained on the basis of calculations according to the standard methods SP-33-101-2003 (SP). The maximum simulated discharges in 2002 and 2012 were 284 and 361 m3/s and correspond to maximum discharges of 1% probability calculated on the basis of the SP. However, estimated water discharge for the catastrophic flood in 1988 reached 688 m3/s, which is twice the value of 1% probability estimated with standard methods. The analysis of the simulation results has shown that the maximum discharge depends on the antecedent state of the catchment, which cannot be explicitly taken into account when using probabilistic calculation methods. The possibility of using mathematical modeling as an approach for assessment of probable maximum flood (PMF), which allows taking into account the combination of the most unfavorable meteorological and runoff formation factors that can lead to the occurrence of PMF, is discussed. The development of methods based on the integrated use of mesoscale atmospheric models and deterministic hydrological models is important as a prospect. The developed methods for assessing the frequency and magnitude characteristics of catastrophic floods can be used to solve engineering problems in climate change conditions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)24-43
Number of pages20
JournalVestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Earth Sciences
Volume64
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019

Fingerprint

hydrograph
coast
river
catchment
engineering
climate change
Black Sea
calculation
water
modeling
simulation
streamflow
method
runoff

Scopus subject areas

  • Geology
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

@article{78b3758606254826b09e63b293844b91,
title = "Calculation of catastrophic floods characteristics of ungauged Tsemes River (Novorossiysk, the Black sea coast of Russia) on the basis of hydrological model {"}hydrograph{"}",
abstract = "The article considers the examples of calculation of catastrophic floods characteristics at ungauged rivers of the Black sea coast of Russia. Mathematical modeling of hydrological processes is proposed as an alternative to the standard methods of assessment of engineering characteristics based on a probabilistic approach in the climate change conditions. The deterministic hydrological model Hydrograph was applied to estimate the maximum water discharges of the ungauged Tsemes river (Novorossiysk). The set of model parameters was developed and verified at studied catchments. Continuous simulations of streamflow were conducted at the Tsemes River with a daily resolution for the period 1977-2013. Using detailed pluviograms data of storm precipitation at Novorossiysk and nearby meteorological stations, 1-hour maximum water discharge of three catastrophic floods on Tsemes river was calculated for flood events in 1988, 2002 and 2012 and compared with the characteristics of maximum discharges obtained on the basis of calculations according to the standard methods SP-33-101-2003 (SP). The maximum simulated discharges in 2002 and 2012 were 284 and 361 m3/s and correspond to maximum discharges of 1{\%} probability calculated on the basis of the SP. However, estimated water discharge for the catastrophic flood in 1988 reached 688 m3/s, which is twice the value of 1{\%} probability estimated with standard methods. The analysis of the simulation results has shown that the maximum discharge depends on the antecedent state of the catchment, which cannot be explicitly taken into account when using probabilistic calculation methods. The possibility of using mathematical modeling as an approach for assessment of probable maximum flood (PMF), which allows taking into account the combination of the most unfavorable meteorological and runoff formation factors that can lead to the occurrence of PMF, is discussed. The development of methods based on the integrated use of mesoscale atmospheric models and deterministic hydrological models is important as a prospect. The developed methods for assessing the frequency and magnitude characteristics of catastrophic floods can be used to solve engineering problems in climate change conditions.",
keywords = "Black sea coast river basins, Catastrophic floods, Deterministic hydrological {"}Hydrograph{"} model, Instant maximum discharge, Parameterization, Storm rainfall., Tsemes river",
author = "Makarieva, {O. M.} and Nesterova, {N. V.} and Vinogradova, {T. A.} and Beldiman, {I. N.} and Kolupaeva, {A. D.}",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.21638/spbu07.2019.102",
language = "English",
volume = "64",
pages = "24--43",
journal = "Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Науки о Земле",
issn = "2541-9668",
publisher = "Издательство Санкт-Петербургского университета",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Calculation of catastrophic floods characteristics of ungauged Tsemes River (Novorossiysk, the Black sea coast of Russia) on the basis of hydrological model "hydrograph"

AU - Makarieva, O. M.

AU - Nesterova, N. V.

AU - Vinogradova, T. A.

AU - Beldiman, I. N.

AU - Kolupaeva, A. D.

PY - 2019/1/1

Y1 - 2019/1/1

N2 - The article considers the examples of calculation of catastrophic floods characteristics at ungauged rivers of the Black sea coast of Russia. Mathematical modeling of hydrological processes is proposed as an alternative to the standard methods of assessment of engineering characteristics based on a probabilistic approach in the climate change conditions. The deterministic hydrological model Hydrograph was applied to estimate the maximum water discharges of the ungauged Tsemes river (Novorossiysk). The set of model parameters was developed and verified at studied catchments. Continuous simulations of streamflow were conducted at the Tsemes River with a daily resolution for the period 1977-2013. Using detailed pluviograms data of storm precipitation at Novorossiysk and nearby meteorological stations, 1-hour maximum water discharge of three catastrophic floods on Tsemes river was calculated for flood events in 1988, 2002 and 2012 and compared with the characteristics of maximum discharges obtained on the basis of calculations according to the standard methods SP-33-101-2003 (SP). The maximum simulated discharges in 2002 and 2012 were 284 and 361 m3/s and correspond to maximum discharges of 1% probability calculated on the basis of the SP. However, estimated water discharge for the catastrophic flood in 1988 reached 688 m3/s, which is twice the value of 1% probability estimated with standard methods. The analysis of the simulation results has shown that the maximum discharge depends on the antecedent state of the catchment, which cannot be explicitly taken into account when using probabilistic calculation methods. The possibility of using mathematical modeling as an approach for assessment of probable maximum flood (PMF), which allows taking into account the combination of the most unfavorable meteorological and runoff formation factors that can lead to the occurrence of PMF, is discussed. The development of methods based on the integrated use of mesoscale atmospheric models and deterministic hydrological models is important as a prospect. The developed methods for assessing the frequency and magnitude characteristics of catastrophic floods can be used to solve engineering problems in climate change conditions.

AB - The article considers the examples of calculation of catastrophic floods characteristics at ungauged rivers of the Black sea coast of Russia. Mathematical modeling of hydrological processes is proposed as an alternative to the standard methods of assessment of engineering characteristics based on a probabilistic approach in the climate change conditions. The deterministic hydrological model Hydrograph was applied to estimate the maximum water discharges of the ungauged Tsemes river (Novorossiysk). The set of model parameters was developed and verified at studied catchments. Continuous simulations of streamflow were conducted at the Tsemes River with a daily resolution for the period 1977-2013. Using detailed pluviograms data of storm precipitation at Novorossiysk and nearby meteorological stations, 1-hour maximum water discharge of three catastrophic floods on Tsemes river was calculated for flood events in 1988, 2002 and 2012 and compared with the characteristics of maximum discharges obtained on the basis of calculations according to the standard methods SP-33-101-2003 (SP). The maximum simulated discharges in 2002 and 2012 were 284 and 361 m3/s and correspond to maximum discharges of 1% probability calculated on the basis of the SP. However, estimated water discharge for the catastrophic flood in 1988 reached 688 m3/s, which is twice the value of 1% probability estimated with standard methods. The analysis of the simulation results has shown that the maximum discharge depends on the antecedent state of the catchment, which cannot be explicitly taken into account when using probabilistic calculation methods. The possibility of using mathematical modeling as an approach for assessment of probable maximum flood (PMF), which allows taking into account the combination of the most unfavorable meteorological and runoff formation factors that can lead to the occurrence of PMF, is discussed. The development of methods based on the integrated use of mesoscale atmospheric models and deterministic hydrological models is important as a prospect. The developed methods for assessing the frequency and magnitude characteristics of catastrophic floods can be used to solve engineering problems in climate change conditions.

KW - Black sea coast river basins

KW - Catastrophic floods

KW - Deterministic hydrological "Hydrograph" model

KW - Instant maximum discharge

KW - Parameterization

KW - Storm rainfall.

KW - Tsemes river

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85066091038&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.21638/spbu07.2019.102

DO - 10.21638/spbu07.2019.102

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85066091038

VL - 64

SP - 24

EP - 43

JO - Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Науки о Земле

JF - Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Науки о Земле

SN - 2541-9668

IS - 1

ER -