Bi-logistic model for disease dynamics caused by mycobacterium tuberculosis in Russia

Anastasia I. Lavrova, Eugene B. Postnikov, Olga A. Manicheva, Boris I. Vishnevsky

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this work, we explore epidemiological dynamics by the example of tuberculosis in Russian Federation. It has been shown that the epidemiological dynamics correlates linearly with the virulence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis during the period 1987-2012. To construct an appropriate model, we have analysed (using LogLet decomposition method) epidemiological World Health Organization (WHO) data (period 1980-2014) and obtained, as result of their integration, a curve approximated by a bi-logistic function. This fact allows a subdivision of the whole population into parts, each of them satisfies the Verhulst-like models with different constant virulences introduced into each subsystem separately. Such a subdivision could be interconnected with the heterogeneous structure of mycobacterial population that has a high ability of adaptation to the host and strong mutability.

Original languageEnglish
Article number171033
JournalRoyal Society Open Science
Volume4
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - 13 Sep 2017

Scopus subject areas

  • General

Keywords

  • Compartmental model
  • Mixed subpopulations
  • Mycobacterium tuberculosis
  • Virulence

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