Эконометрическое построение меры разрыва выпуска российской экономики для новокейнсианской Филлипса

Translated title of the contribution: Econometric construction of the output gap measure for the Russian economy for New Keynesian Phillipse Curve

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Abstract

This article considers such an economic indicator as a measure of the output gap. The measure of the output gap
is one of the indicators used in the construction of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, a modern macroeconomic model
for estimating the inflation rate. The article defines the existing methods for estimating the output gap measure: onedimensional and multidimensional methods, from which three one-dimensional methods are further considered – the
Hodrick-Prescott filtration, the simple moving average and exponential moving average method – and the positive and
negative sides of various methods are given. The article also discusses various indicators of the gross domestic product,
based on which it is possible to build a measure of the output gap, and then the measure of the output gap itself is built
using the three previously mentioned methods and the most suitable method for constructing the New Keynesian Phillips
Curve is chosen – the simple moving average method.
Translated title of the contributionEconometric construction of the output gap measure for the Russian economy for New Keynesian Phillipse Curve
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)209-213
JournalСкиф. Вопросы студенческой науки
Issue number8 (60)
StatePublished - Aug 2021

Keywords

  • output gap
  • gross domestic product (GDP)
  • New Keynesian Phillipse Curve (NKPC)
  • HodrickPrescott Filter (HP)
  • simple moving average (SMA)
  • exponential moving average (EMA)

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