SOCIAL ECOLOGY AS A CONNECTING LINK BETWEEN FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRACTICE: 18th PCSF 2018 Professional Culture of the Specialist of the Future

Research output

Abstract

The paper gives a definition of the socio-ecological system (SES). The global and regional models of SES are discussed in connection with practical macroeconomics. A number of model scenarios for development of SES in USSR up to the year 2070 are considered. The "Mir-2" model implemented in MathCad ("Mir-2 MC") was used in the paper to verify Eu. Odum's hypothesis on cyclical development of the civilization and a possibility to shift it to the stationary functioning mode. It is shown that the initial condition for the resource equation adopted in "Mir-2" model is understated by a factor of 3-9. The scenarios implemented in "Mir-2 MC" model showed that SES gives rise to macro-scale oscillations of all components with the increase of the traditional fossil fuel reserves. The number of cycles changes from 2 to 4. In case of the use of oil shale reserves, with profitable extraction, the number of oscillations increases to 15. When using thermonuclear energy, SES components shift to the simple harmonic motion mode close to the equilibrium state. The growth of the population size in every cycle, except for the last one, is limited not by fuel resources, but by food shortage and environmental pollution. Cyclic processes end in spontaneous transition to stationary development. An adjustable transition to SES' steady motion is possible only through population control after the completion of the first or subsequent cycles. A logistic model of growth with an acceptable population threshold of 1.5 billion is used as a regulator.
Original languageEnglish
Pages255-265
Number of pages11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Dec 2018
Event18TH PCSF 2018 - PROFESSIONAL СULTURE OF THE SPECIALIST OF THE FUTURE
St. Petersburg, 28-30 ноября 2018 г.
Организаторы: Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University
- 2018 Published by Future Academy www.FutureAcademy.org.UK, Санкт-Петербург
Duration: 28 Nov 201830 Nov 2018
Conference number: XVIII
https://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2018.12.02.28

Conference

Conference18TH PCSF 2018 - PROFESSIONAL СULTURE OF THE SPECIALIST OF THE FUTURE
St. Petersburg, 28-30 ноября 2018 г.
Организаторы: Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University
Abbreviated title18th PCSF 2018 Professional Culture of the Specialist of the Future
CountryRussian Federation
CityСанкт-Петербург
Period28/11/1830/11/18
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Сергеев, Ю. Н., Дмитриев, В. В., & Кулеш, В. П. (2018). SOCIAL ECOLOGY AS A CONNECTING LINK BETWEEN FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRACTICE: 18th PCSF 2018 Professional Culture of the Specialist of the Future . 255-265. Abstract from 18TH PCSF 2018 - PROFESSIONAL СULTURE OF THE SPECIALIST OF THE FUTURE
St. Petersburg, 28-30 ноября 2018 г.
Организаторы: Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Санкт-Петербург, . https://doi.org/DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2018.12.02.28