As the negative impacts of rising global temperatures become increasingly evident, nations, states, cities and private enterprises are enhancing efforts to reduce the atmospheric abundance of the greenhouse gases (GHG) responsible for global warming. The management and evaluation of GHG emission reduction policies require accurate and robust estimates of emissions. These estimates need to be established and regularly updated using transparent methods, traceable to international standards. New research is required to more accurately quantify carbon stocks and the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Analysis and understanding of GHG sources and sinks, and of their anthropogenic and natural components, must be based on improved, robust, process-orientated modelling approaches and assessment methods using atmospheric GHG measurements, tracer transport inversions and land observations, in-situ and from space. This improved understanding of GHG fluxes and their drivers must also serve the needs of stakeholders through an effective dialogue between national inventory compilers and the research community. The development and improvement of methodologies for a GHG verification system should address the need for versatility of application in Europe, and the upscaling from Europe to other GHG emitting countries and regions, through international cooperation mechanisms promoted by the WMO, the IPCC and the UNFCCC in the context of the Paris Agreement on Climate.
Overarching goals and objectives
VERIFY will advance the development of accurate and robust observation-based methods for quantifying GHG emissions and sinks, as well as deliver knowledge and products that are of practical use for policy and societal stakeholders.
Policies in support of climate change mitigation through GHG emission reductions require estimates of emissions baselines and changes, with sufficient regional detail to quantify emission hot-spots, as well as regular updates to monitor trends in the response to climate change, land use management, and socio-economic shifts. VERIFY will evaluate and improve a suite of GHG-emission modelling and measurement approaches at different levels of spatial integration and complexity in order to address the following principal goals:
1. Provide accurate and precise information on GHG fluxes in Europe across nations, states, and cities with annual updates in support of EU climate policies.
2. Deliver a portfolio of synthesis products on GHG fluxes (measurements, models, integration methods, and uncertainties) to the Global Carbon Project, IPCC (including the Task Force on Inventories, UNFCCC negotiators and inventory compilors, and the Future Earth Programme.
3. Facilitate the development of an operational GHG monitoring system in Europe, as part of the global atmospheric monitoring system coordinated by WMO IG3IS1 and aligned with the GEO Carbon Strategy2 and the CEOS Strategy for Carbon Observations from Space3.
To respond to these principal goals, the objectives of VERIFY are:
Objective 1. Integrate the efforts between the research community, national inventory compilers, operational centres in Europe, and international organisations towards the definition of future international standards for the verification of GHG emissions and sinks based on independent observation.
Objective 2. Enhance the current observation and modelling ability to accurately and transparently quantify the sinks and sources of GHGs in the land-use sector for the tracking of land-based mitigation activities.
Objective 3. Develop new research approaches to monitor anthropogenic GHG emissions in support of the EU commitment to reduce its GHG emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to the year 1990.
Objective 4. Produce periodic scientific syntheses of observation-based GHG balance of EU countries and practical policy-oriented assessments of GHG emission trends, and apply these methodologies to other countries.